东南大学电气工程学院,江苏省南京市 210096
地理区域位置的不同与区域网格功能属性的差别都在一定程度上造成了各网格内部电动汽车充电负荷的差异较大。针对目前电动汽车充电需求预测研究中未能充分考虑到电动汽车动态充电负荷分布差异性的不足,文中提出考虑地理区域差异性与用户行程多样性的数据驱动的电动私家车网格化充电需求预测方法。首先,对电动私家车用户出行轨迹与城市交通网络等类型数据进行数据挖掘并建立数学模型,获取电动私家车用户多段行程起讫点信息与用户出行基本规律。其次,基于地理信息系统平台将各类兴趣点(POI)经纬度坐标映射至地理网络中,将地理区域网格内结合用户日常出行目的的各类POI数量集分类处理,并采取自然分级法对所研究的地理区域实施精确的网格划分,功能区网格包含工作区、商业区、生活区、住宅区和混合区5种类别,建立多个时段下各功能区间的起讫点信息概率矩阵。结合得到的电动私家车在各网格内的分布结果,建立了基于蒙特卡洛法的电动汽车充电负荷预测模型,获取电动汽车在网格间转移的电量连续变化状况。基于中国苏州市实际电动汽车历史数据,以该市某区域为应用环境,完成各功能区域内的电动私家车充电需求预测仿真,仿真结果验证了区域网格划分的合理性及充电需求预测的准确性。
江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项资金资助项目(BE2022030-2);国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFB2501600)。
To a certain extent, the difference in the location of geographical regions and the difference in functional attributes of regional grids result in the great difference in electric vehicle charging load within each grid. Because of the insufficient consideration of the difference in dynamic charging load distribution of electric vehicles in current research on electric vehicle charging demand forecasting, this paper proposes a data-driven gridding charging demand forecasting method for private electric vehicles considering the differences of geographical regions and the diversity of user trips. Firstly, data mining on the travel tracks of private electric vehicle users, the urban traffic network, and other data types is conducted. Mathematical models are constructed to obtain the origin-destination information of multi-stage trips and the basic travel patterns of private electric vehicle users. Secondly, the latitude and longitude coordinates of each point of interest (POI) are mapped to the geographic network based on the geographic information system platform. Various POI quantity sets combined with users’ daily travel purposes in the geographic area grid are classified. The natural classification method is adopted to implement accurate grid division of the studied geographic area. The functional area grid includes five categories: the work area, the business area, the living area, the residential area, and the mixed area. An origin-destination information probability matrix for each functional area is established in multiple periods. Combined with the obtained distribution results of private electric vehicles in each grid, this paper establishes an electric vehicle charging load forecasting model based on the Monte Carlo method to capture the continuous changes of electric vehicle electricity amount transferred between grids. Based on the actual historical data of electric vehicles in Suzhou, China, and taking a region of Suzhou as the application environment, the simulation of charging demand forecasting for private electric vehicles in each functional region is completed. The simulation results verify the rationality of regional grid division and the accuracy of charging demand forecasting.
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