1.State Grid Electric Power Research Institute (NARI Group Corporation), Nanjing 211106, China;2.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China

The global warming trend has increased the occurring probability of compound disasters. Accurate evaluation of the failure rate for transmission lines under compound disasters is the quantitative basis for the power grid risk warning and emergency decision-making. The method of cumulative failure rate based on independent events of disaster types cannot reflect the time-varying nature of disaster evolution or the coupling characteristics of mutual influence between disaster types. It is difficult to objectively reflect the fault risk faced by transmission lines in the compound disaster scenarios. Whole reductionism thinking (WRT) integrates the global view of holism with the mechanistic view of reductionism, and it is a new paradigm for studying complexity problems. The complexity root of compound disasters is analyzed from the perspective of time-varying and coupling characteristics. From the perspective of disaster-type independent analysis and compound-disaster analysis, the current status and problems faced by evaluation technologies of the failure rate for transmission lines under natural disasters are reviewed. A research approach for the WRT-based comprehensive disaster analysis method is then proposed, and an evaluation framework of “offline optimization based on classification features, and online execution based on actual disaster situations” is established. Several key technologies of comprehensive disaster analysis method are finally discussed.