1.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China;2.State Grid Electric Power Research Institute (NARI Group Corporation), Nanjing 211106, China

In response to the problem that the disaster-type independent analysis is difficult to adapt to the time-varying and coupling characteristics of the complex external environment of the power grid, the first paper in the series established a comprehensive disaster analysis framework based on whole reductionism thinking (WRT). As a sequel, an online evaluation algorithm of failure rate for transmission lines based on comprehensive disaster analysis is proposed. Firstly, according to the coarse-grained characteristics of the time series of the meteorological disaster status and trends, the compound-disaster status and trends are classified and encoded. Secondly, by dividing compound disaster areas, compound geographic feature areas, and overlapping areas of compound disasters and geographic features, a granularity adaptive division method for line segments is proposed. Then, according to the mechanism of “offline optimization based on classification features, and online execution based on actual disaster situations”, the failure rate of each line segment under each type of compound-disaster status and trends is evaluated. Taking the disaster causing process of compound disasters as a whole, the time series of failure rate of each transmission line is obtained by aggregating the failure rates of line segments. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by taking the actual power grid operation data of a certain province in China as a case.